Monsoon season—ends with normal rains, the largest surplus in drought-prone Rajasthan

India’s four-month monsoon season is drawing to a close with above-normal rains. Drought-prone regions of western Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch recorded +70% above normal rainfall this season, while the key agricultural state of Punjab witnessed a shortfall of around -28%.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Dr M Mohapatra, it was largely caused by 14 low pressure systems that formed in the Bay of Bengal, most of which traveled towards the Arabian Sea along central India, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Very few of them went to the lower Himalayas, hence the deficit in Punjab (-28%) and Jammu and Kashmir (-26%).

According to the IMD, the seasonal rainfall from June to September is 108% of the long-term average (LPA). Between 96-104% of LPA is considered normal monsoon.

Monsoons were powered by 14 low pressure systems against the usual 13, but they lasted about 69 days compared to the usual 55. Six of them intensified and one of them became a rare Cyclone Asna, causing devastating rain. Letters on Gujarat and the adjoining districts of Rajasthan.

Region-wise, only Northeast India recorded below normal rainfall (86% of LPA), while Northwest India (107%), Central India (119%), and Southern Peninsula (114%) recorded ‘above normal’ rainfall. LPA).

Sub-division wise, deficit continued in Punjab (-28%), Jammu and Kashmir (-26%), Arunachal Pradesh (-28%). Another major reason for the rainfall in North India is the southern side of the monsoon trough for most of the season. Also, there is no major western disturbance during this season, which can make up for the deficit in the Himalayan foothills.

Monsoon withdrawal from northwest India this week

Monsoon has already started withdrawing from West Rajasthan on September 23. However, its retreat from the northwestern states has been delayed again this year. Forecasters expect another week to recede from parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

But the IMD still indicated a high probability of rains in October – which could be 115% of the long-term average (LPA). Rains are likely to be ‘above normal’ in most parts of the country except parts of northeast and northwest India like Punjab.

Heavy rains in the southern peninsula this winter

Meanwhile, the southern peninsula is bracing for its ‘winter monsoon’ – the northeast monsoon that usually reaches the southern coast by October 15. It is responsible for bringing 30% of the annual rainfall over the five sub-divisions of Tamil Nadu-Puducherry. , Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and coastal Andhra Pradesh in October–December.

According to the IMD, the region is likely to receive above normal rainfall during this period – at least 112% above the long-term average (LPA). “There is a good chance of ‘above normal’ rains for the whole of the Southeast Peninsula this year. However, this may be almost normal as Tamil Nadu usually does not receive good rainfall during La-Nina year. However, the exact picture will become clear once the northeast monsoon sets in,” the IMD chief said on Tuesday.